What is a Point Spread? How Does Spread Betting Work?

A point spread is a type of bet based on the margin of victory in a game or match. It's a function of sports betting used to make every matchup one of nearly (or exactly) equal probability by setting a margin that the favored team must win by.

Very rarely do sportsbooks see games as 50-50 coin flips, or as commonly referred to in bettors' language: pick 'ems. When the matchup is not one of equal probability, it would not be profitable for sportsbooks to take bets on the predicted winner (favorite) and the predicted loser (underdog) at the same price.

For example, during Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season, the 8-4 Tennessee Titans played the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars. If the sportsbooks had been taking bets on each side to win the game at exactly the same odds, it would be a no-brainer for bettors to place wagers on the vastly superior Titans. Common sense and analytics alike say the Titans would win that game well over half of the time, making it an extremely profitable bet if the teams were priced equally.

Spread betting is used when sports bettors are wary of betting on a moneyline, or rather a team to win the game outright.

Say, for example, a team is a huge favorite and the moneyline is above -200. That's typically not worth risking, as the payout won't be very large. Instead, betting said favorite to cover the spread, or win by a determined margin, can net you typically around -110 odds.

On the contrary, spread betting is very useful when betting on underdogs. Sometimes, an underdog line might be too risky for them to win outright, but if bettors feel the game may be close, the spread is a great option.

Bettors can typically also bet custom spreads. For example, if the spread is set at -6, but a bettor feels the favorite team is going to win by much more than that, they can bet -10 for increased odds.

First off, any spread with a minus (-) sign means that team is the favorite. A plus (+) sign means that team is the underdog. Therefore, -2 means that a team must win by more than two points in order to cover the spread. If they win by exactly two points, the bet would push and the stake would be returned with no winnings.

Similarly, -3.5 means the team must win by more than three and a half points. Since there's a half point, there's no possibility of a push – your bet will either win or lose. Bettors must pay attention to these spreads based on which sport they're wagering on. For example, in NFL betting, a spread of 3.5 means that a team winning by just a field goal (3 points) would not be enough to cover the spread.

A -7 spread is another important number in football betting. Your team winning by exactly seven points means the bet pushes, whereas winning by more than seven would be a win, and winning by less than seven (or losing) would be a loss.

To even out the wagers the sportsbooks receive on a game, oddsmakers set a point spread favoring one team to win by a certain margin. Using our Titans-Jaguars example, the spread was set at Tennessee -8.5 points.

The spread can and will vary slightly across different sportsbooks, but let's say 8.5 was the general consensus. That means when a point spread wager on the Titans is placed, Tennessee would have to win the game by 9 points or more, i.e., to cover the 8.5 point spread.

On the other hand, if a bet is placed on Jacksonville, the wager wins if the Jaguars were to win the game or lose by less than 8.5 points.

Tennessee ended up winning that game by 20 points (20-0), so point spread wagers on the Titans cashed, while bettors who took the Jaguars point spread lost.

When a point spread is listed on a sportsbook, it is accompanied by a "+" or a "-" sign. The "-" sign means that the team is the favorite, so Tennessee was listed as "-8.5." Jacksonville, as the underdog, was listed at "+8.5."

The logical way to think about this format is to imagine that Tennessee is beginning the game with -8.5 points. If that were the case, according to the oddsmakers, the Titans and Jaguars would have a near-equal win probability.

While the chances of the bet hitting may be about equal in the eyes of the sportsbook, the general odds for a point spread are still -110 on both sides of the bet, meaning a bettor must risk $110 to win $100. That extra risk is called the vig, and is how sportsbooks ensure they make money.

However, sometimes the book doesn't view the spread as exactly equal so will have the prices at something like -115/-105. Generally speaking, the two numbers add up to -220. If not, that probably means the book is taking more or less vig than is standard. As always, it's advisable to shop around for the best line and price for your bet.

Point spreads are available in most sports, but they work slightly differently depending on the sport:

Sometimes, point spreads are set as whole numbers like -3 or +7 rather than numbers with half-point increments like -3.5 or +7.5. In these cases, there's a possibility that the outcome exactly matches the spread, resulting in a "push."

For example, if the Titans were favored by -8 (instead of -8.5) and they won by exactly 8 points, bets on both sides of the spread would result in a push. When a push occurs, the sportsbook returns the original stake to the bettor.

To avoid pushes, sportsbooks often use half-point spreads. However, in certain situations (especially around key numbers like 3 and 7 in the NFL), whole number spreads can be beneficial for bettors.

When betting on point spreads, consider these strategies to improve your chances of success:

• Line shopping: Check multiple sportsbooks to find the best spread and odds for your bet.
• Key number awareness: In NFL betting, pay special attention to spreads around 3, 7, and 10 points.
• Timing matters: Lines often move throughout the week based on betting action and news, so knowing when to place your bet can be crucial.
• Home field advantage: Home teams typically get around 2-3 points in NFL spreads to account for home field advantage.
• Public bias: Consider going against popular public teams that might be overvalued in the spread.