Enter the average goals per game for each team to calculate the probability distribution for various match outcomes. This model assumes goals follow a Poisson distribution, which is commonly used in soccer/football analytics.
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model commonly used in sports betting, particularly in soccer/football, to predict the number of goals or points scored in a match. It assumes that goals occur at a constant rate and independently of each other, which makes it suitable for modeling low-scoring events.
In mathematical terms, the Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a certain number of events (like goals) occurring in a fixed time period (like a match), given the average rate of occurrence. For example, if a team averages 1.5 goals per game, the Poisson distribution can tell you the probability of that team scoring exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, or more goals in a particular match.
While the Poisson model has limitations (it doesn't account for team form, injuries, weather, etc.), it provides a useful baseline for estimating match outcomes and can help identify value bets when your assessment differs from the bookmakers' odds.
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