Expected Value Calculator

What Is Expected Value (EV) In Sports Betting?

Expected value (EV) is a mathematical concept that calculates the average outcome of a bet if it were placed many times. It helps bettors determine whether a wager has positive value (profitable in the long run) or negative value (unprofitable in the long run).

EV represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times with the same odds and the same win probability. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet in the long term, while a negative EV suggests you should avoid the bet.

Example

Let's say you bet $100 on a team with +150 odds, and you believe they have a 40% chance of winning:

• Potential Profit: $150
• Probability of Win: 0.40 (40%)
• Probability of Loss: 0.60 (60%)
• Expected Value = (0.40 × $150) - (0.60 × $100) = $60 - $60 = $0

In this example, the EV is $0, which means this bet is "fair" - neither profitable nor unprofitable in the long run. If the EV was positive, it would be a good bet mathematically.

Why Expected Value Matters

EV is a fundamental concept for serious sports bettors because:

• It helps identify truly valuable bets, even if they might not always win
• It provides a mathematical foundation for betting decisions
• It's essential for long-term profitability
• It keeps you focused on finding value rather than just picking winners

Inputs

• Odds: The American odds for your bet
• Win Probability: Your estimated chance of winning (as a percentage)
• Bet Amount: How much you plan to wager

Outputs

• EV Amount: The expected value in dollars
• EV Percentage: The expected value as a percentage of your bet
• Bet Value: Whether the bet has positive, negative, or neutral value